Introduction
Over the next 10 years a significant number of key oncology products, some with blockbuster status, will lose patent protection, thus exposing billions of dollars to generic erosion. While obviously a major threat to the key pharmaceutical players and sales of their branded products, this presents significant opportunities to potential generic manufacturers.
Scope
- Overview of the current generic cancer market, including profiles of key products and events impacting each during 200414
- Assessment of current and future opportunities and threats in the generic cancer market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
- Individual country, EU5 and seven-market sales forecasts from 2004 to 2014 for branded products and their generic counterparts
- Detailed discussion of key strategic issues in the generic cancer market, plus three commercial impact and lifecycle management case studies
Highlights
The generic cancer market was worth $1.3 billion in 2004, and is set to grow at a CAGR of 24.3% to reach $10.9 billion by 2014. All classes of drugs are set to enjoy significant growth, although in some cases this is highly dependent on finalization and implementation of an explicit regulatory framework for the approval of biogenerics.
The cytotoxics and antihormonal therapy classes already suffer a high level of genericization, therefore further growth will arise via the patent expiration of existing newer products, some of which currently achieve, or are forecast to achieve, blockbuster sales of over $1 billion a year by 2014.
The targeted therapies and supportive care products offer perhaps the greatest opportunities for generic players, given their potential for blockbuster sales and key roles in cancer management. However, potential players in these markets must be prepared to wait for the relevant biogeneric legislation to be passed.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand market specific drivers and predict the future potential of key generic cancer therapies
- Assess the impact of patent expiries on key brand name products and identify the opportunities and risks for generic drugs in the seven major markets
- Adopt knowledge to drive strategic planning for generic products and optimize market penetration of new entrants
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team 2
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Scope of analysis 3
Datamonitor insight into the generic cancer market 4
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 15
Market definition for this report 15
Cytotoxics 16
Antihormonal therapies 17
Immunostimulating agents 19
Targeted therapies 20
Supportive care products 21
Miscellaneous 21
Generics drugs 22
Generic small molecule drugs 22
Biogeneric agents 23
Drugs profiled 24
Generic opportunities within the drug classes 24
Current market situation 26
Key companies 27
CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS 29
Current and future opportunities and threats in the generic cancer market 29
Global opportunities and threats 29
US: opportunities and threats 40
Japan: opportunities and threats 47
EU5: opportunities and threats 50
France: opportunities and threats 54
Germany: opportunities and threats 56
Italy: opportunities and threats 57
Spain: opportunities and threats 60
UK: opportunities and threats 61
Summary of environmental issues affecting the antihormonal therapies market size 64
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS 66
Country-specific assumptions and effects 66
Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US 66
Biennial price cuts in Japan 66
Generic erosion assumptions 66
Product assumptions and effects 67
Cytotoxics 67
Antihormonal therapies 80
Immunostimulating agents 88
Targeted therapies 91
Supportive care products 99
Forecasts 102
CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES 103
Introduction 103
Case study 1 103
Taxotere’s rise to superiority in the face of Taxol’s losses 103
Case study 2 110
Nolvadex’s patent challenge resulted in benefits for both companies involved 110
Case study 3 117
Genericization of the supportive care class 117
APPENDIX A – MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS 128
Cytotoxics market data 128
Antihormonal therapies market data 132
Immunostimulating agents market data 135
Targeted therapies market data 136
Supportive care products market data 138
Sales data and forecasts 140
PowerPoint Executive Presentation 140
APPENDIX B – SALES FORECASTS 141
US forecasts 141
Japan forecasts 143
France forecasts 144
Germany forecasts 147
Italy forecasts 150
Spain forecasts 152
UK forecasts 155
EU5 forecasts 158
Global forecasts 161
APPENDIX C 164
Bibliography 164
List of tables 170
List of figures 174
Report methodology 175
Forecast methodology 175
Standard units 175
Japanese market data 175
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 175
Generic erosion and pricing assumptions 176
About Datamonitor 177
About Datamonitor Healthcare 177
About the Oncology analysis team 178
Disclaimer 179
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