Introduction
The Top 20 cancer therapeutics generated sales of $20.1 billion in 2005 across the seven markets, set to reach $27.4 billion by 2015. Cytotoxics currently constitute the majority, due to their long history in oncology and their key role in current treatment. By 2015, the majority of the Top 20 will consist of targeted therapies, whose place in cancer therapy will become increasingly established.
Scope
- Overview of the current Top 20 cancer therapeutics market, including profiles of key products and events impacting each during 200515
- Assessment of current and future opportunities and threats in the cancer market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
- Individual country, EU5 and seven-market sales forecasts from 2005 to 2015 for the leading cancer therapeutics
- Detailed discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis, plus three commercial impact and lifecycle management case studies
Highlights
The Top 20 cancer therapeutics were worth nearly $20.1 billion in sales in 2005 across the seven major markets. Given that the entire oncology market including the supportive care classes across the seven major markets, was worth $34.6 billion in 2005, the Top 20 cancer therapeutics account for a significant proportion of sales, approximately 58%.
In 2005, the cytotoxics represented the majority of the Top 20, due to their long history in oncology and applicability for use across a range of tumor types. By 2015, the targeted therapies will constitute the majority as their inclusion into standard treatment continues and as line extension and horizontal expansion strategies are implemented.
Only the targeted therapies class is forecast to undergo positive sales growth between 2005 and 2015, as increased inclusion into standard regimens occurs. The cytotoxics and antihormonal therapies are set to experience negative sales growth to 2015, as patent expiries on key products occur and increasing levels of genericization erode sales.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand market specific drivers and predict the future potential of key cancer therapeutics
- Quantify the impact of key patent expiries and product launches, and identify opportunities and risks across the seven major markets
- Adopt knowledge to drive strategic planning for mature products and optimize the market penetration of new entrants
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team 2
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Scope of the analysis 3
Datamonitor insight into the cancer market 4
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 15
Market definition for this report 15
Cytotoxics 15
L1A - Alkylating agents 15
L1B - Antimetabolites 16
L1C - Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products 16
L1D - Antineoplastic antibiotics 16
L1X2 - Platinum compounds 17
Antihormonal therapies 17
L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs 17
L2B1 - Anti-estrogens 17
L2B2 - Anti-androgens 17
L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors 18
Targeted therapies 18
L1X3 - Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies 18
L1X9 - All other antineoplastics 18
The Top 20 cancer therapeutics 19
Current market situation 22
CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS 26
Current and future opportunities and threats in the cancer market 26
Global opportunities and threats 26
Opportunities 26
Threats 31
US: opportunities and threats 36
Opportunities 36
Threats 38
Japan: opportunities and threats 40
Opportunities 40
Threats 41
EU5: opportunities and threats 43
Opportunities 43
Threats 45
France: opportunities and threats 47
Opportunities 47
Threats 48
Germany: opportunities and threats 49
Opportunities 49
Threats 50
Italy: opportunities and threats 51
Opportunities 51
Threats 52
Spain: opportunities and threats 54
Opportunities 54
Threats 55
UK: opportunities and threats 56
Opportunities 56
Threats 56
Summary of environmental issues affecting the cancer market size 59
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS 61
Country-specific assumptions and events 61
Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US 61
Biennial price cuts in Japan 61
Generic erosion assumptions 61
Product-specific assumptions and events 62
Cytotoxics 62
Schering-Plough’s Temodar/Temodal (temozolomide) 62
Eli Lilly’s Alimta (pemetrexed) 63
Eli Lilly’s Gemzar (gemcitabine) 64
Taiho Pharmaceuticals’ TS-1 (tegafur, gimeracil & oteracil) 66
Taiho Pharmaceuticals’ UFT (tegafur & uracil) 67
Pharmion Corp’s Vidaza (5-azacitidine) 68
Roche’s Xeloda (capecitabine) 69
Pfizer/Yakult/Daiichi’s Camptosar/Campto (irinotecan) 70
Pierre Fabre/GlaxoSmithKline’s Navelbine (vinorelbine) 71
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Taxol (paclitaxel) 72
Sanofi-Aventis’s Taxotere (docetaxel) 74
Johnson & Johnson/Schering-Plough’s Doxil/Caelyx (pegylated liposomal doxorubicin) 77
Pfizer’s Ellence/Farmorubicin (epirubicin) 78
Sanofi-Aventis’s Eloxatin (oxaliplatin) 79
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Paraplatin (carboplatin) 82
Antihormonal therapies 83
Debiopharm’s Decapeptyl (triptorelin) 83
Takeda/TAP/Abbott/Wyeth’s Lupron (leuprorelin) 84
Sanofi-Aventis’s Suprefact (buserelin) 84
AstraZeneca’s Zoladex (goserelin) 85
AstraZeneca’s Nolvadex (tamoxifen) 86
AstraZeneca’s Casodex (bicalutamide) 88
AstraZeneca’s Arimidex (anastrozole) 89
Pfizer’s Aromasin (exemestane) 91
Novartis’s Femara (letrozole) 92
Targeted therapies 94
Genentech/Roche’s Avastin (bevacizumab) 94
ImClone/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA’s Erbitux (cetuximab) 96
Genentech/Roche’s Herceptin (trastuzumab) 99
Genentech/Roche’s Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab) 101
Novartis’s Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib) 103
AstraZeneca’s Iressa (gefitinib) 105
OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche’s Tarceva (erlotinib) 107
Ortho Biotech/Millennium Pharmaceuticals’ Velcade (bortezomib) 109
Pipeline and newly marketed products 111
Amgen’s ABX-EGF (panitumumab) 111
Onyx Pharmaceuticals/Bayer’s Nexavar (sorafenib) 114
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Sprycel (dasatinib) 117
Pfizer’s Sutent (sunitinib) 119
GlaxoSmithKline’s Tykerb (lapatinib) 121
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 124
Standard units 124
Japanese market data 124
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 124
Forecasts 124
Forecast methodology 125
CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES 126
Introduction 126
Case study 1 126
Changes to the Top 20 cancer therapeutics between 2005 and 2015 126
The Top 20 cancer therapeutics in 2005 - cytotoxics have the largest share 126
The Top 20 cancer therapeutics in 2015 - targeted therapies are key 129
Product sales growth between 2005 and 2015 131
Individual country Top 20 cancer therapeutics 134
Case study 2 139
Genentech/Roche’s Avastin: increasing market penetration and line extensions expected to break all boundaries 139
The first commercialized angiogenesis inhibitor 139
The Genentech/Roche partnership: a key to success 140
Expanding range of indications 141
Despite formulation issues, the monoclonal antibodies generally confer greater clinical benefit than the small molecules 143
Competitor threats to be heeded 144
Biosimilars: should Genentech and Roche take note? 145
A prime example of becoming the leader in a new drug class 146
Case study 3 146
The impact of targeted therapies in redefining cancer 146
Greater understanding & new technologies have enabled the development of molecular targeted therapies 146
Redefining classification of tumor types 147
Genentech/Roche’s Herceptin: using patient population subtypes to expedite regulatory approval 147
Commercial potential for diagnostics and biomarkers 148
APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS 150
Cytotoxics market data 150
Antihormonal therapies market data 158
Targeted therapies market data 163
APPENDIX B - MARKET FORECAST DATA 168
US forecasts 168
Japan forecasts 170
France forecasts 172
Germany forecasts 174
Italy forecasts 176
Spain forecasts 178
UK forecasts 180
EU5 forecasts 182
Seven major market forecasts 184
APPENDIX C 186
Bibliography 186
Report methodology 194
About Datamonitor 195
About Datamonitor Healthcare 195
About the Oncology analysis team 196
Disclaimer 197
List of Tables
Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2006 15
Table 2: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the US, Japan, France and Germany, 2005 20
Table 3: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in Italy, Spain, the UK and collective seven major markets, 2005 21
Table 4: Key pipeline/newly marketed drugs included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics 22
Table 5: Seven major market sales of Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2005 22
Table 6: Key targeted therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics 23
Table 7: Key cytotoxics included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics 24
Table 8: Key antihormonal therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics 25
Table 9: Market share of Taxotere, 2005 75
Table 10: Market share of Eloxatin 80
Table 11: Approved indications for Rituxan in the US and EU, 2006 102
Table 12: Clinical pipeline for ABX-EGF, 2006 111
Table 13: Clinical pipeline for Nexavar, 2006 115
Table 14: Clinical pipeline for Sprycel, 2006 117
Table 15: Summary of Phase II Sprycel clinical trial results 118
Table 16: Clinical pipeline for Sutent, 2006 120
Table 17: Clinical pipeline for Tykerb, 2006 122
Table 18: Seven market forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics, 2005 127
Table 19: Seven market forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics, 2015 129
Table 20: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the US, 2005-15 135
Table 21: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in Japan, 2005-15 136
Table 22: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the five EU markets, 2005-15 138
Table 23: Key events in Avastin’s lifecycle 139
Table 24: Seven market forecast sales of Avastin, 2005-15 141
Table 25: Global forecast sales of Avastin based on company-reported data, 2005-15 142
Table 26: Alimta: key facts 150
Table 27: Camptosar: key facts 151
Table 28: Doxil: key facts 151
Table 29: Ellence: key facts 152
Table 30: Eloxatin: key facts 152
Table 31: Gemzar: key facts 153
Table 32: Navelbine: key facts 153
Table 33: Paraplatin: key facts 154
Table 34: Taxol: key facts 154
Table 35: Taxotere: key facts 155
Table 36: Temodar: key facts 155
Table 37: TS-1: key facts 156
Table 38: UFT: key facts 156
Table 39: Vidaza: key facts 157
Table 40: Xeloda: key facts 157
Table 41: Arimidex: key facts 158
Table 42: Aromasin: key facts 158
Table 43: Casodex: key facts 159
Table 44: Decapeptyl: key facts 159
Table 45: Femara: key facts 160
Table 46: Lupron: key facts 160
Table 47: Nolvadex: key facts 161
Table 48: Suprefact: key facts 161
Table 49: Zoladex: key facts 162
Table 50: Avastin: key facts 163
Table 51: Erbitux: key facts 163
Table 52: Gleevec: key facts 164
Table 53: Herceptin: key facts 164
Table 54: Iressa: key facts 165
Table 55: Nexavar: key facts 165
Table 56: Rituxan: key facts 166
Table 57: Sutent: key facts 166
Table 58: Tarceva: key facts 167
Table 59: Velcade: key facts 167
Table 60: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the US, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 168
Table 61: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the US, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 169
Table 62: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Japan, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 170
Table 63: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Japan, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 171
Table 64: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in France, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 172
Table 65: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in France, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 173
Table 66: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Germany, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 174
Table 67: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Germany, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 175
Table 68: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Italy, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 176
Table 69: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Italy, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 177
Table 70: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Spain, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 178
Table 71: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Spain, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 179
Table 72: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the UK, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 180
Table 73: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the UK, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 181
Table 74: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the EU5, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 182
Table 75: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the EU5, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 183
Table 76: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005-15 (1 of 2) 184
Table 77: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005-15 (2 of 2) 185
List of Figures
Figure 1: Seven market population aged 60 and over, 2000-50 26
Figure 2: Increasing incidence of cancer with increasing age 27
Figure 3: Seven major pharmaceutical market oncology sales, 2004-14 28
Figure 4: Summary of global opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2006 59
Figure 5: Summary of regional opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2006 60
Figure 6: Seven market sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2005 128
Figure 7: Seven market sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2015 130
Figure 8: Seven market cytotoxics sales growth, 2005-15 131
Figure 9: Seven market antihormonal therapies sales growth, 2005-15 132
Figure 10: Seven market targeted therapies sales growth, 2005-15 133
Figure 11: Forecast sales of Avastin, 2005-15 142
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