Market Development in Anti-virals:What is Next?

Executive Summary

There are huge unmet medical needs in viral infections. Any virus can become multi-resistant and a consequence of this is the constant need for new improved pharmaceuticals. The total anti-viral market is progressing well beyond $10bn and the prognosis for 2007 is that it will reach around $14bn. Surprisingly few companies share this sizeable global market, which can explain all the new entrants knocking on the door at this time. These comprise the full range of true innovators, "me better" to "me too".

There are more than 170 phase I drugs and close to 40 phase III drugs in development for different viral indications. Competition varies from fierce, as within the HIV market, to the seemingly unchallenged market of RSV. MedImmune’s RSV blockbuster drug Synargis scored close to a billion US in 2003. The competitive business environment for the pharmaceutical market of HCV infection is also fierce and changing. Hoffmann-La Roche’s entry into this $3 billion market, previously dominated by Schering-Plough, has certainly paved the way and will make life easier for other HCV drug developing companies. Competition is healthy, and market dominance by one big pharma provides far fewer business opportunities compared to two companies fighting to be the world leader.

A considerable proportion of all infectious diseases occur in densely populated countries in the process of rapid economic growth, such as parts of Southeast Asia and China. These areas will most likely become significant new markets for drugs against infections diseases over the coming decade.

This analysis deals with 26 of the most promising pharmaceutical companies with anti-viral drugs on the market. Indication by indication is measured by number of current therapies, present sales and sales development. BioSeeker Intelligence Unit has taken a closer look on second generation drugs following up existing ones and preferred viral R&D strategies. We have chosen also outlined the competitive landscape around market leaders such as GlaxoSmithKline, F-Hoffmann La Roche, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Gilead Sciences. Our analysis creates valuable insights in market and R&D development for all major viral infections, such as HIV, Hepatitis, HSV, and Influenza.