Sanofi-Aventis: PharmaVitae Profile 2007

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 5
Launch and expiry outlook 10
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 13
Externalization strategy 14
Geographic strategy 15
Molecule type strategy 15
SWOT analysis 17
Strengths 17
Weaknesses 20
Opportunities 21
Threats 21
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 26
Key findings 26
Background 27
M&A history 28
Sanofi-Synthelabo 28
Aventis 28
M&A strategy 29
Increase US market presence 30
Therapy area diversification 30
Patent risk dilution 30
Creation of thrombotic powerhouse 31
Current corporate structure 31
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 33
Key findings 33
Introduction 34
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 34
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 35
Product analysis, 2001-06 37
Growth drivers 37
Eloxatine 37
Lantus 38
Plavix 38
Stilnox 39
Lovenox 39
Growth resistors 40
Allegra/Telfast 40
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 41
Operating revenue/cost analysis 42
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 44
Key findings 44
Introduction 45
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 45
Product analysis, 2006-12 47
Growth drivers 53
Eloxatine 53
Lantus 54
Vaccines franchise 54
Lovenox 54
Eplivanserin 55
Growth resistors 55
Ambien/Stilnox 55
Taxotere 55
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 57
Oncology 59
Endocrine, metabolic & genetic disorders 60
Cardiovascular & hematology 60
Infectious diseases 60
CNS 61
Therapy area focus 62
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 68
Launch portfolio 69
Core portfolio 71
Expiry portfolio 73
Launch/core/expiry configuration 75
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 80
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 85
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 89
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 94
Key findings 94
Overview 95
Cardiovascular & hematology 96
Lovenox 96
Overview 96
Sales forecast 97
Newsflow 97
Plavix 104
Overview 104
Sales forecast 105
Newsflow 105
Oncology 108
Eloxatine 108
Overview 108
Sales forecast 109
Newsflow 109
Taxotere 114
Overview 114
Sales forecast 115
Newsflow 115
Gardasil 121
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
Newsflow 123
Endocrine, metabolic & genetic disorders 128
Lantus 128
Overview 128
Sales forecast 129
Newsflow 129
CNS 132
Ambien/Stilnox 132
Overview 132
Sales forecast 133
Newsflow 133
Eplivanserin 138
Overview 138
Sales forecast 139
Newsflow 139
Infectious diseases 141
Menactra 141
Overview 141
Sales forecast 142
Newsflow 142
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 146
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 146
Abbreviations 148
Exchange rates 149
List of Tables
Table 1: Peer set overview 35
Table 2: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 41
Table 3: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 42
Table 4: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 47
Table 5: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 57
Table 6: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 69
Table 7: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 71
Table 8: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 73
Table 9: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 80
Table 10: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 89
Table 11: Key products overview 95
Table 12: Lovenox: overview 96
Table 13: Lovenox: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 97
Table 14: Lovenox: news flow 97
Table 15: Plavix: overview 104
Table 16: Plavix: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 105
Table 17: Plavix: news flow 105
Table 18: Eloxatin: overview 108
Table 19: Eloxatin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 109
Table 20: Eloxatin: news flow 109
Table 21: Taxotere: overview 114
Table 22: Taxotere: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 115
Table 23: Taxotere: news flow 115
Table 24: Gardasil: overview 121
Table 25: Gardasil: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 122
Table 26: Gardasil: news flow 123
Table 27: Lantus: overview 128
Table 28: Lantus: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 129
Table 29: Lantus: news flow 129
Table 30: Ambien/Stilnox: overview 132
Table 31: Ambien/Stilnox: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 133
Table 32: Ambien/Stilnox: news flow 133
Table 33: Eplivanserin: overview 138
Table 34: Eplivanserin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 139
Table 35: Eplivanserin: news flow 139
Table 36: Menactra: overview 141
Table 37: Menactra: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 142
Table 38: Menactra: news flow 142
Table 39: Exchange rates, 2006 149
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Sanofi-Aventis and Big Pharma peer set 3
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%), 2006 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Sanofi-Aventis 10
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 12
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 13
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 14
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Sanofi-Aventis 17
Figure 8: Current corporate structure 32
Figure 9: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 34
Figure 10: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 36
Figure 11: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 37
Figure 12: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 42
Figure 13: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 43
Figure 14: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 46
Figure 15: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006 49
Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012 52
Figure 17: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 53
Figure 18: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 56
Figure 19: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 58
Figure 20: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 59
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12 62
Figure 22: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 65
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 67
Figure 24: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 70
Figure 25: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 72
Figure 26: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 74
Figure 27: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12 75
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Sanofi-Aventis 78
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 79
Figure 30: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 81
Figure 31: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 82
Figure 32: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 83
Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 84
Figure 34: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 85
Figure 35: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 86
Figure 36: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 87
Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 88
Figure 38: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 90
Figure 39: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 91
Figure 40: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 92
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 93
Figure 42: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 147
Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 148