The CNS Market Outlook to 2010

Executive Summary

CNS disorders contribute to as much as 35% of the disease burden in the seven major pharmaceutical markets (US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) as measured in terms of daily-adjusted life years. The worldwide patient population with CNS disorders is steadily rising, both in terms of prevalence and in terms of treatment, driven by an aging population, improving diagnostic techniques, increasing physician and patient awareness and a gradual shift away from the social stigma traditionally attached to many psychiatric conditions. The largest CNS indications in terms of prevalence are depression, migraine and pain, with 80m, 79m and 158m sufferers respectively across the seven major pharmaceutical markets. The fastest growing indication in terms of prevalence is Alzheimer’s disease. By 2010 it is forecast that Alzheimer’s disease will afflict 15m patients. In 2004 Parkinson’s disease affected 2m patients across the seven markets, although epidemiological dynamics do not forecast this indication as a major growth area. Schizophrenia affected an estimated 8m patients in 2004, with prevalence forecast to rise to 9m patients by 2010. Growth rates associated with the prevalence of this disease are relatively robust compared to many other indications. Epilepsy is forecast to have relatively static growth in terms of prevalence of the disease, with 6m sufferers forecast to be affected by the disease by 2010.