Introduction
Based on an analysis of 46 companies and 1,000+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 4.9% CAGR 200511. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening.
Scope
- Financial and Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook to 2011 for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech
- Quantitative analysis of the revenue balance of launches and expiries for each peer set member to 2011
- Assessment of current and forecast 2011 therapeutic focus and product type focus for each peer set member
- 2002-2006 operating cost and EBIT margin analysis for each peer set member
Highlights
Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of ’pharma space’ to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare.
Biotech will be the fastest growing peer set with a 10.1% sales CAGR 2005-11. Biotech is almost totally insulated from generic threat because (1) biotech portfolios are often too young to contain expired products and (2) even if products have expired, the predominantly biologic nature of biotech portfolios is a major barrier to generic entry.
The fastest growing Japanese companies (such as Daiichi-Sankyo and Astellas) will receive the majority of their growth from expanding sales of already marketed products whereas the slowest growing companies (such as Takeda and Eisai) are burdened with heavy sales declines from patent expiries particularly in the gastrointestinal therapy area.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand the strategic motives behind the recent wave of Big Pharma acquisitions of monoclonal antibody companies
- Identify the rare examples of promising high growth CNS products located in the Mid Pharma peer set
- Learn how biotech faces slowing growth momentum due to second generation biologics cannibalizing sales of first generation predecessor products.
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Key findings 3
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Company Universe 5
Summary of analysis 9
PharmaVitae universe overview 11
Big Pharma overview 12
Mid Pharma overview 14
Biotech overview 16
Japan Pharma overview 18
The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2005–11 CAGR of 4.9% 20
Indication broadening in oncology and AIID provides a major opportunity for driving growth and biologics are currently insulated against generic competition 21
Japan, Big and Mid Pharma are all entrenched in slow-growing disease markets 26
Biotech is the most biologics-focused peer set although Big Pharma player Roche has accessed this valuable product set via the acquisition of Genentech 28
Indication broadening boosts sales growth from core marketed products whereas generic competition drives down sales of expired products 30
The financial benefit of Big Pharma scale – increased operating profit margins 32
Strategic options for Big Pharma and consequences for the other peer sets 33
(1) Achieve operating cost efficiencies 34
(2) M&A with another Big Pharma – more mega-mergers? 35
(3) M&A with biotech – access oncology/AIID biologics 35
(4) M&A with Mid Pharma – access promising CNS products 36
(5) M&A with generics companies 36
(6) M&A outside of pharma space 36
Consequences for other peer sets 36
The rest of this report 37
CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA 52
Key findings 52
Big Pharma members 54
Big Pharma members 54
Big Pharma overview 55
Big Pharma sales outlook 56
Company sales performance, 2005–11 58
Big Pharma sales performance, 2005–11 60
Company growth rates, 2005–11 61
Company change in annual sales, 2005–11 62
Big Pharma launch/expiry analysis 64
Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 70
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 72
Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11 76
Big Pharma therapeutic area analysis 78
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 81
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 82
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 83
Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 87
Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 90
Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2005 92
Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2011 94
Big Pharma molecule type analysis 96
Big Pharma molecule type launch/core/expiry analysis 97
Company by biologics dependency, 2005 99
Company by biologics dependency, 2011 100
Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type 102
Big Pharma financial performance analysis 104
Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues 104
Company total revenues, 2002–06e 105
Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 107
Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 109
Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 110
Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 112
CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA 115
Key findings 115
Mid Pharma overview 117
Mid Pharma members 117
Mid Pharma overview 118
Mid Pharma sales outlook 120
Company sales performance, 2005–11 120
Mid Pharma sales performance, 2005–11 121
Company growth rates, 2005–11 122
Company change in annual sales, 2005–11 123
Mid Pharma launch/expiry analysis 124
Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 124
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 127
Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11 130
Mid Pharma therapeutic area analysis 131
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 131
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 133
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis 134
Company by biologics dependency, 2005 134
Company by biologics dependency, 2011 135
Mid Pharma financial performance analysis 136
Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues 136
Company total revenues, 2002–06e 138
Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 139
Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 141
Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 142
Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 143
CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH 146
Key findings 146
Biotech overview 148
Biotech members 148
Biotech overview 149
Biotech sales outlook 150
Company sales performance, 2005–11 150
Biotech sales performance, 2005–11 151
Company growth rates, 2005–11 152
Company change in annual sales, 2005–11 154
Biotech launch/expiry analysis 156
Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 156
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 158
Biotech contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11 161
Biotech therapeutic area analysis 162
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 162
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 163
Biotech molecule type analysis 164
Company by biologics dependency, 2005 164
Company by biologics dependency, 2011 165
Biotech financial performance analysis 166
Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues 166
Company total revenues, 2002–06e 167
Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 168
EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 170
CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA 171
Key findings 171
Japan Pharma overview 172
Japan Pharma members 172
Japan Pharma overview 173
Japan Pharma sales outlook 174
Company sales performance, 2005–11 174
Japan Pharma sales performance, 2005–11 175
Company growth rates, 2005–11 176
Company change in annual sales, 2005–11 177
Japan Pharma launch/expiry analysis 178
Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 178
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 179
Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11 182
Japan Pharma therapeutic area analysis 183
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 183
Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 184
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis 185
Company by biologics dependency, 2005 185
Company by biologics dependency, 2011 186
Japan Pharma financial performance analysis 187
Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues 187
Company total revenues, 2002–06e 188
Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e 189
EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 191
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 192
References 192
Exchange rates 192
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Big Pharma members 6
Table 2: Mid Pharma members 7
Table 3: Biotech members 7
Table 4: Japan Pharma members 8
Table 5: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report) 8
Table 6: Summary of analysis 9
Table 7: Big Pharma members 54
Table 8: Big Pharma ethical sales forecasts ($m), 2005–11 56
Table 9: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 70
Table 10: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 72
Table 11: Big Pharma therapy area sales, 2005–11 79
Table 12: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005–11 80
Table 13: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 89
Table 14: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 91
Table 15: Big Pharma top five products, 2005 93
Table 16: Big Pharma top five products, 2011 95
Table 17: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11 96
Table 18: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005–11 97
Table 19: Mid Pharma members 117
Table 20: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 125
Table 21: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 127
Table 22: Biotech members 148
Table 23: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 156
Table 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 158
Table 25: Japan Pharma members 172
Table 26: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 178
Table 27: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 180
Table 28: Exchange rates, 2005 192
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: PharmaVitae universe overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 11
Figure 2: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 12
Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 14
Figure 4: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 16
Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 18
Figure 6: PharmaVitae universe sales ($m), 2005–11 20
Figure 7: Therapy area x product attractiveness landscape 21
Figure 8: Therapy area x product landscape: PFE, ROG and DNA 24
Figure 9: Peer set therapeutic area focus, 2005 26
Figure 10: Peer set therapy area growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11 28
Figure 11: Peer set launch/core/expiry analysis, total growth rate over the six years between 2005–11 (%) 30
Figure 12: Peer set EBIT/total revenues, 2006e 32
Figure 13: Strategic options for Big Pharma 33
Figure 14: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 55
Figure 15: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11 58
Figure 16: Big Pharma sales performance, 2005–11 60
Figure 17: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11 61
Figure 18: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11 62
Figure 19: GlaxoSmithKline’s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11 65
Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline’s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11 66
Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline’s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11 67
Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, absolute growth ($m), 2005–11 69
Figure 23: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 73
Figure 24: Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 76
Figure 25: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 81
Figure 26: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 82
Figure 27: Company by therapy area sales, 2011 83
Figure 28: Big Pharma therapy area focus vs. growth rate 85
Figure 29: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2005 88
Figure 30: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2011 90
Figure 31: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products(% of total ethical sales), 2005 92
Figure 32: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products (% of total ethical sales), 2011 94
Figure 33: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry by product type (% 2005 sales), 2005–11 98
Figure 34: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 100
Figure 35: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 101
Figure 36: Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type (% CAGR), 2005–11 102
Figure 37: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m), 2005 104
Figure 38: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e 106
Figure 39: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 108
Figure 40: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 109
Figure 41: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 111
Figure 42: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 112
Figure 43: Big Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e 114
Figure 44: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 119
Figure 45: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11 120
Figure 46: Mid Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005–11 121
Figure 47: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11 122
Figure 48: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11 124
Figure 49: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 128
Figure 50: Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 130
Figure 51: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 132
Figure 52: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 133
Figure 53: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 134
Figure 54: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 135
Figure 55: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) 137
Figure 56: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e 138
Figure 57: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 139
Figure 58: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 141
Figure 59: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 142
Figure 60: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e 144
Figure 61: Mid Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e 145
Figure 62: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 149
Figure 63: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11 150
Figure 64: Biotech sales performance ($m), 2005–11 151
Figure 65: Company growth rates (CAGR %), 2005–11 153
Figure 66: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11 155
Figure 67: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 159
Figure 68: Biotech contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 161
Figure 69: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 162
Figure 70: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 163
Figure 71: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 164
Figure 72: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 165
Figure 73: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) 166
Figure 74: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e 167
Figure 75: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 169
Figure 76: Company EBIT/total revenues, 2002–06e 170
Figure 77: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) 173
Figure 78: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11 174
Figure 79: Japan Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005–11 175
Figure 80: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11 176
Figure 81: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11 177
Figure 82: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11 181
Figure 83: Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11 182
Figure 84: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 183
Figure 85: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 184
Figure 86: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 185
Figure 87: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 186
Figure 88: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) 187
Figure 89: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e 188
Figure 90: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e 190
Figure 91: Company EBIT vs. total revenues, 2002–06e 191
Other selected research from the 'Japan' category:
Pharmaceuticals: Japan Industry Guide
Pharmaceuticals in Japan
Other selected research from the 'Markets' category:
The Top 10 Generics Companies: Strategic insight, growth opportunities and competitive dynamics in the US and Europe
The eHealth Market in the US: Understanding Physician and Consumer Needs
Other selected research from the 'Markets' category:
2008 Trends to Watch: Pharmaceutical Technology
Global Pharmaceutical Market Forecast to 2012